European Union antitrust authorities are expected to drop a bombshell on the cloud computing industry as soon as next week, when preliminary findings from a long-running Digital Markets Act (DMA) probe will reportedly classify Amazon Web Services and Microsoft Azure as "gatekeepers" in the European cloud market. The designation, if confirmed, would compel the two hyperscalers to open their ecosystems, ease data portability, and abandon practices that regulators believe stifle competition, fundamentally reshaping how businesses buy and use cloud services across the 27-nation bloc.

Two people familiar with the ongoing investigation told windowsnews.ai that the European Commission is preparing to release its preliminary assessment during the week of June 22, 2026. The document will argue that both AWS and Azure meet the DMA's strict thresholds for gatekeeper status in the core platform service of cloud computing, setting the stage for one of the most significant regulatory interventions in the tech sector since the law took full effect in 2023.

The DMA's Gatekeeper Criteria: Why Cloud Is Next

The Digital Markets Act, which came into force in November 2022, was designed to curb the power of large online platforms acting as bottlenecks between businesses and consumers. It defines a gatekeeper as a company that has a significant impact on the EU's internal market, provides a core platform service (CPS) that serves as an important gateway for business users to reach end users, and enjoys an entrenched and durable position. Companies meeting quantitative thresholds—annual EU turnover of at least €7.5 billion, market capitalisation of at least €75 billion, and 45 million monthly active end users in the EU across at least one CPS—are presumed to be gatekeepers and must notify the Commission.

Cloud computing was always on the Commission's radar as a CPS, but until now, the focus had been on consumer-facing services like search engines, social networks, and app stores. The DMA explicitly lists cloud computing services as a category in its annex, and after designating Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, ByteDance, Meta, and Microsoft for other CPS in September 2023, the Commission opened a market investigation into cloud services in early 2024 following complaints from European software vendors and open-source communities about anti-competitive licensing, unfair bundling, and prohibitive egress fees.

Cloud Market Concentration: The Data Behind the Probe

AWS and Azure dominate the global cloud infrastructure market, with Synergy Research Group reporting in Q1 2026 that the two players collectively hold 55% of the worldwide market. In Europe, their grip is even tighter—some estimates place their combined share above 65% when measured by revenue from infrastructure-as-a-service (IaaS) and platform-as-a-service (PaaS). That concentration, regulators fear, has given both companies the power to dictate terms, lock in customers, and squeeze out smaller rivals.

The Commission's preliminary findings reportedly highlight several practices under scrutiny: restrictive software licensing that makes it more expensive to run Microsoft software on non-Azure clouds, data egress fees that punish customers for moving data to competitors, and technical barriers that limit interoperability between different cloud platforms. A 2025 study commissioned by the EU's digital policy directorate found that European businesses lose an estimated €2.1 billion annually due to cloud lock-in, a figure that has become a rallying cry for proponents of DMA enforcement.

Inside the June 2026 Preliminary Findings

According to the leaked timeline, the forthcoming document does not constitute a final decision but signals the Commission's intention to pursue formal gatekeeper designations for AWS and Azure in cloud computing. The report will outline how both companies satisfy the DMA's quantitative and qualitative criteria: AWS, though part of the already-designated Amazon e-commerce ecosystem, was not initially flagged for cloud services because the Commission first focused on its marketplace and advertising businesses. Microsoft, already a gatekeeper for its Windows PC operating system and LinkedIn social network, now faces the prospect of a third designated CPS.

The findings will likely zero in on specific anti-competitive behaviours. For AWS, the probe has examined how Reserved Instances and Savings Plans create financial incentives to commit to long-term contracts, while technical integrations with proprietary services like Aurora and Lambda make it difficult for customers to replicate architectures on rival clouds. For Microsoft, the central concern has been its licensing policies for Windows Server, SQL Server, and Office 365, which critics say impose a "tax" on non-Azure deployments and were only partially softened after a 2022 settlement with European cloud providers.

Both companies have consistently denied any wrongdoing. AWS argues that the cloud market is fiercely competitive, pointing to growing adoption of multi-cloud strategies and the emergence of challengers like Google Cloud and Oracle. Microsoft maintains that its licensing changes in 2022 addressed many concerns and that customers have always been free to run its software wherever they choose.

What Gatekeeper Status Would Mean for AWS and Azure

If the preliminary findings lead to final designation—a decision expected by late 2026 or early 2027—AWS and Azure would have six months to comply with a sweeping set of obligations. Among the most impactful:

  • Interoperability mandates: Gatekeepers must provide free, effective APIs to enable business users to integrate with their own or third-party services. For cloud, that could mean offering standardised interfaces for virtual machines, storage, and databases, making it easier to build portable applications.
  • Data portability obligations: Cloud providers would need to supply tools that allow customers to export their data—and not just raw files but also metadata and configurations—in machine-readable formats, and to do so at no cost.
  • Prohibition of self-preferencing: AWS and Azure could not rank their own services higher in marketplaces or recommend them over rivals without a clear, fair methodology.
  • Ban on anti-steering clauses: Business users must be free to offer different prices or terms on other platforms; contractual clauses that prohibit customers from using competitors would be illegal.
  • Egress fee elimination: The Commission has already signalled that data transfer fees to move out of a cloud are a form of anti-competitive lock-in. A gatekeeper designation would formalise the ban, forcing providers to swallow the cost of moving data.

Additionally, both companies would be banned from combining personal data across different services without explicit consent, restricting their ability to use data from one service to advantage another—a blow to their advertising and AI ambitions.

Non-compliance can bring fines of up to 10% of global annual turnover, rising to 20% for repeated infringements. For Amazon, which reported $620 billion in total revenue in 2025, that could mean penalties exceeding $60 billion.

Industry Reactions: Cheers and Jeers

European cloud hopefuls have long accused American hyperscalers of gaming the market. The Coalition for Fair Software Licensing, which includes companies like Nextcloud and OVHcloud, welcomed the news but stopped short of declaring victory. "This is a necessary step, but the devil will be in the details," said the group's director, Emma Leroux, in a prepared statement. "We need concrete, enforceable rules that actually change behaviour, not just paper promises."

On the other side, the CCIA Europe, a trade group representing large tech firms including Amazon and Microsoft, warned that overregulation could backfire. "Labelling every successful cloud provider as a gatekeeper risks stifling innovation and limiting the choices available to European enterprises," said policy manager Jan Schäfer. "The DMA was never intended to punish scale for its own sake."

Financial analysts are already weighing the potential impact. Morgan Stanley issued a note suggesting that forced openness could erode AWS's famously high margins, but also open new opportunities for cloud-adjacent services like consulting and migration support. For Microsoft, the bigger risk may be reputational, given its long-running battles with European antitrust authorities.

A Cloud Industry at a Crossroads

The timing of the EU's move is critical. Enterprise cloud spending is expected to exceed $800 billion globally by 2027, according to Gartner, and artificial intelligence workloads are accelerating demand for scalable infrastructure. Both AWS and Microsoft are betting heavily on AI services, embedding proprietary models and development tools deep into their platforms. A DMA crackdown could force them to disentangle those AI layers or offer them on equal terms to rivals, potentially reshaping the emerging AI-as-a-service market before it fully consolidates.

The draft findings also arrive as other jurisdictions eye similar actions. The UK's Competition and Markets Authority has an ongoing cloud market investigation, and the US Federal Trade Commission under President Lina Khan has signalled interest in cloud competition. A unified transatlantic approach could amplify the pressure on AWS and Azure to change their business models globally.

Next Steps: From Findings to Compliance

After the preliminary findings are released next week, AWS and Microsoft will have the opportunity to respond in writing and at an oral hearing. The Commission typically allows 8–12 weeks for such responses before moving to a final decision. That timeline suggests a formal designation could land in the fourth quarter of 2026, possibly alongside the annual review of existing gatekeeper obligations.

Once designated, the companies would then negotiate compliance measures with the regulator. Historically, this process has been contentious. Apple and Google have already clashed with the Commission over DMA-mandated changes to their app stores, with investigations into non-compliance launched in 2024. Cloud computing, being far more complex and varied than mobile ecosystems, is likely to produce no less friction.

Industry insiders predict that AWS and Microsoft will mount a vigorous legal defence, possibly challenging the designation itself in EU courts—a process that could drag on for years. But the DMA was crafted to speed up enforcement, and the Commission has shown a willingness to wield its new powers. In 2025, it designated Booking.com as a gatekeeper for hotel booking services in just 45 days after the company failed to rebut the presumption.

What This Means for Windows and Enterprise IT

For Windows enthusiasts and enterprise IT decision-makers, the implications are immediate and practical. Microsoft's licensing rules have long been a thorn in the side of organisations running hybrid or multi-cloud environments. If the DMA forces transparent, non-discriminatory licensing, it could lower costs for anyone using Windows Server or SQL Server on non-Azure clouds. It might also accelerate adoption of third-party tools that manage multi-cloud deployments, as portability becomes less of a technical headache.

Conversely, some IT leaders worry that forced openness could complicate security and compliance postures. "When you standardise APIs, you potentially expand the attack surface," noted Thomas Riedel, a Frankfurt-based cloud architect. "There's a balance between openness and security that the DMA must respect."

The Bigger Picture: A New Era of Tech Regulation

The DMA is part of a broader European regulatory agenda that includes the Digital Services Act, the Data Act, and the AI Act. Together, they aim to create a level playing field for digital services while protecting fundamental rights. The cloud gatekeeper designation would fill one of the last major gaps in the DMA's coverage, bringing the infrastructure underpinning the digital economy under the same strict regime as consumer apps.

If the Commission succeeds, it could cement Brussels as the world's de facto tech regulator, with rules that reverberate far beyond Europe. For AWS and Azure, the message is clear: the days of unfettered growth and ecosystem lock-in are numbered. How they respond will determine not only their own futures but the shape of the cloud industry for the next decade.