Global smartphone shipments took an 11 percent nosedive in the second quarter of 2026, plunging to their lowest second-quarter level since 2013, according to new data from Counterpoint Research. Behind the decline: a memory chip shortage that’s driving up prices for DRAM and NAND—the same components inside every Windows laptop, desktop, and SSD.

The numbers don’t just spell trouble for phone makers. They’re an early signal that the memory crunch is rippling through the entire consumer electronics supply chain, and Windows PC buyers are next in line.

The Smartphone Market’s Sudden Stop

Counterpoint’s preliminary Q2 2026 figures, first reported by Ars Technica, show a market in retreat. Total shipments hit a level not seen in over a decade for the April-through-June period. The drop was most severe among brands focused on budget and mid-range devices: Xiaomi, Oppo, and Vivo all suffered double-digit shipment declines.

In stark contrast, Samsung and Apple not only weathered the storm but strengthened their positions. Samsung reclaimed the top spot with a 24 percent global share, while Apple’s shipments actually grew 3 percent, pushing its share to a record 20 percent. Apple was also the only major OEM to keep current-generation phone prices flat, while most competitors raised theirs to offset rising component costs.

“Premium phones have more padding to absorb memory cost increases,” explained a Counterpoint analyst cited in the reporting. “For a $200 phone, a $5 increase in memory cost can kill the margin. For an $800 phone, it’s a rounding error.”

The Memory Chip Squeeze

The root cause is a classic supply-demand mismatch. NAND flash and DRAM—the chips that give phones and PCs their working memory and storage—are in fierce competition with AI data centers. Hyperscale cloud providers are soaking up massive quantities of high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and enterprise SSDs, and chipmakers are naturally following the profit. Tom’s Hardware, citing Omdia, reported that memory now accounts for up to 64 percent of the total build cost for some low-tier smartphones, compared to roughly a quarter for flagship devices.

“When you’re making memory chips, you have a choice: allocate wafers to a $100-per-chip data-center module, or to a $5 smartphone chip,” said a semiconductor analyst quoted by Digitimes. “It’s not a difficult decision on a spreadsheet.”

Smartphone makers have responded by either raising retail prices, trimming specs (less storage, less RAM), or simply canceling low-margin models. Xiaomi, for example, delayed several budget launches in India and Southeast Asia, according to Reuters. Oppo reduced the memory configurations of its mid-range Reno series in some markets.

What It Means for Your Windows PC

The exact same DRAM and NAND components power every Windows machine—from a $300 budget laptop to a $3,000 workstation. Here’s how the squeeze is likely to affect different groups.

For everyday users and home buyers:
The most immediate pain will show up in the budget and mid-range laptop aisles. A $400 laptop that previously shipped with 8 GB of RAM and a 256 GB SSD may soon arrive with 4 GB and 128 GB—or its price may jump $50 to $100. Chromebooks and entry-level Windows 11 SE devices, which already operate on razor-thin margins, are especially vulnerable. If you’ve been waiting for a back-to-school deal, don’t expect the kind of deep discounts seen in 2024 or 2025.

For power users and IT professionals:
Enterprise hardware isn’t immune. DDR5 SODIMM modules and M.2 NVMe SSDs have seen spot prices climb 15–20 percent in the past quarter, according to DRAMeXchange. That means fleet refreshes will cost more, and IT managers may need to justify higher budgets or delay non-critical upgrades. Thin client and VDI terminals, which rely on modest amounts of RAM, may also see supply constraints.

For developers and engineers:
Dev boxes with 64 GB or 128 GB of RAM still command a premium, but those costs are now compounded by scarcity. Build-to-order workstations from Dell, HP, and Lenovo have shown extended lead times for high-memory configurations, a pattern reminiscent of the 2017–18 memory shortage. If you’re speccing out a workstation for a new hire, start the procurement process early.

How We Arrived at This Point

The memory market has always been cyclical, but this cycle is unique because of AI. Here’s a brief timeline:

  • Late 2024–Early 2025: Chipmakers began shifting production capacity away from commodity DRAM and NAND toward HBM and enterprise SSDs, spurred by the generative AI boom.
  • Mid-2025: First signs of tightness appeared in server memory, then spilled over into PC and smartphone channels. Notebook OEMs reported longer lead times for LPDDR5X and UFS 4.0 storage.
  • Late 2025: Smartphone vendors started warning investors about margin pressure. Samsung and Apple, with their deeper pockets and in-house component advantages, started stockpiling chips.
  • Q2 2026: The crunch became undeniable as Counterpoint’s shipment data hit a 13-year low. Budget phones bore the brunt, but Windows PC makers were quietly scaling back their low-end offerings.

Unlike past shortages that were driven by a single factor—like the crypto-mining GPU craze—the current bottleneck is structural. AI training and inference require ever-growing memory pools, and there’s no sign that demand will slacken. Nvidia’s next-gen GPUs, AMD’s Instinct accelerators, and custom chips from Google and Amazon all need more HBM than ever.

Practical Steps for Buyers and IT Managers

If you’re in the market for a new Windows PC, phone, or storage upgrade, here’s how to navigate the shortage:

  1. Lock in prices now. If you see a system or component at a price point you can accept, don’t wait. Quotes from OEMs are often valid for only 30 days, and many are preparing to pass through higher costs in Q3.
  2. Consider stepping up a tier. A mid-range laptop with 16 GB of RAM may be only slightly more expensive than an entry-level model with 8 GB, yet it’s more likely to remain in stock and hold its value.
  3. Check actual specs, not just model names. Manufacturers sometimes swap in lower-performance SSDs or reduce RAM without changing the model number. Read the fine print and verify the SKU details.
  4. For businesses: negotiate volume agreements. Enterprise customers with scheduled refreshes should talk to their resellers about locking in multi-quarter pricing. Even a 90-day price hold can shield you from the worst spikes.
  5. Watch for SSD-only upgrades. If you’re planning to add storage later, buy an M.2 drive now. Retail SSD pricing is already ticking upward, and demand typically surges in the second half of the year.
  6. Phones aren’t isolated. The same advice applies: if your phone is aging and you’re considering a mid-range replacement, don’t be surprised if it’s pricier than expected. Flagships may offer better value at the moment.

What to Expect Next

Counterpoint forecasts that global smartphone shipments will drop about 14 percent for all of 2026, and the memory shortage could persist into 2027. That timeline matters for Windows buyers: if you’re hoping the situation resolves before a planned purchase later this year, it likely won’t.

Keep an eye on quarterly financial calls from Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron, as well as spot-price trackers from TrendForce and DRAMeXchange. Any hint of new wafer starts or a slowdown in AI demand could ease pressure, but for now, the mantra is “buy it when you see it.”

The smartphone market just gave us a stark preview of what happens when memory becomes the scarcest component in the system. Windows PCs are running on the same fuel.