Samsung has snatched back the crown as the world’s top smartphone maker, capturing 24% of global shipments in the second quarter of 2026. But the headline numbers from Counterpoint Research, first reported by Mashable, tell a grim story beneath the surface: total smartphone shipments plummeted 11% compared to the same period last year, marking the weakest Q2 in over a decade. A severe memory chip shortage, fueled by the AI industry’s insatiable demand for high-bandwidth memory, is remaking the economics of the device in your pocket—and it’s only going to get tougher for buyers and IT managers through the rest of the year.

Samsung’s Q2 Surge in a Contracting Market

Samsung’s return to the top spot was propelled by the Galaxy S26 series, launched in February. Counterpoint singled out the Galaxy S26 Ultra as a “standout performer,” thanks in part to Samsung’s decision to hold the line on pricing for its most premium model. Meanwhile, Apple slid to second place but still notched a record 20% quarterly share, with the iPhone 17 staying the world’s most-shipped individual model. The company eked out a 3% year-over-year shipment gain even as the broader market tanked.

Yet neither company had an easy quarter. Global shipments fell to levels not seen since 2013, and Counterpoint projects a roughly 14% decline for the full year. The culprit is a global memory chip crunch that has squeezed component availability and forced manufacturers to make hard choices about which devices get scarce DRAM and NAND flash storage.

The Memory Shortage: AI’s Appetite Is Squeezing Your Next Phone

Behind the market slide is a tectonic shift in the semiconductor industry. Over the past two years, memory manufacturers like Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron have poured investment into advanced DRAM—specifically high-bandwidth memory (HBM)—to feed the exponential growth of AI data centers. Nvidia’s H100 and H200 GPUs, the engines of the AI boom, gobble up HBM stacks at prices far higher than commodity memory. The result: less factory capacity for the DDR and LPDDR chips that go into phones, laptops, and tablets, and higher prices for what remains.

Smartphone makers are especially vulnerable. The bill of materials for a mid-range handset is already razor-thin; a 10-15% jump in memory costs can wipe out margins or force a retail price increase. That dynamic directly explains the 11% shipment decline: many consumers, especially in price-sensitive markets, are holding off on upgrades. Counterpoint noted that budget and mid-tier phones felt the squeeze hardest, while premium flagships—where margins absorb the blow more easily—held up better.

Practical Impact: What Phone Shoppers and IT Buyers Should Expect

For anyone eyeing a new smartphone this year, the message is clear: brace for fewer discounts and possible sticker shock on anything below the flagship tier.

If you’re a consumer: Apple and Samsung have so far held the line on their top-line phones. The Galaxy S26 Ultra and iPhone 17 Pro models launched without price increases in the U.S., and current stock levels appear healthy. But the mid-range is a different story. Phones in the $400–$700 range—where most global sales occur—are facing component shortages that could lead to limited availability, feature cuts, or higher prices. If your current phone is on its last legs, acting sooner rather than later may be wise; waiting for a traditional holiday discount cycle might backfire if supplies tighten further.

If you manage a business fleet: IT departments planning a fall refresh of corporate iPhones or Android devices should start budgeting now for 10–15% higher per-unit costs compared to 2025. Procurement cycles may also need to lengthen, as lead times for custom enterprise configurations could stretch. Consider accelerating purchases of current-generation devices while channel inventory is still adequate, or explore leasing options that smooth out capital expenditure. And don’t forget: the same memory dynamics are inflating costs for Windows laptops and desktop memory modules. That cheap 16GB DDR5 stick for a ThinkPad upgrade is likely to get pricier, not cheaper, through early 2027.

If you’re a developer: The market shift reinforces Android’s volume dominance, but Apple’s record share means iOS remains essential. If you build mobile apps, test across a broad range of devices, paying special attention to performance on older models where component allocation is now favoring newer hardware. This could accelerate the fragmentation of the Android installed base, making backward compatibility a larger burden.

From AI Boom to Consumer Pinch: A Timeline

The roots of today’s smartphone slump trace back to late 2024, when AI hype translated into massive orders for HBM. By early 2025, memory makers had already begun reallocating production lines. The first casualties were PC OEMs, who saw DDR5 spot prices rise 20% in the first half of 2025. Smartphones, which use similar commodity DRAM (LPDDR variants), felt the knock-on effect with a lag.

In the smartphone world, 2025 ended with Apple in the lead, buoyed by the iPhone 17’s strong debut. Samsung’s Galaxy S25 that year was solid but unspectacular. The pendulum swung in Q1 2026 when Samsung launched the S26 line early, and the memory crunch intensified. Apple, which is not a memory manufacturer, had to prioritize its own component supply: recent-generation iPhones got the chips, while older models saw softer demand as production was constrained. China, a key market for Apple, also remained a relative weak spot, adding regional headwinds.

Samsung’s integrated semiconductor business gave it a partial shield. The company not only makes memory but also designs and builds many of its own phone components. Yet even Samsung couldn’t fully escape the tide: it reportedly considered price hikes on its S26 Ultra before reversing course to protect volume, a move that apparently paid off.

Your Move: How to Navigate a Market Under Pressure

Concrete steps to deal with the current reality:

  • For immediate phone buyers: If you need a device now, stick with newly released flagships—they’re the least likely to see supply-related delays or price hikes soon. The Galaxy S26 series and iPhone 17 line are safe bets. If you prefer Android and want a foldable, Samsung’s Galaxy Unpacked event on July 22 will reveal new models; pricing will be critical. Exercise caution with mid-range models from any brand; check reviews for any signs of cost-cutting on storage or RAM configurations.
  • For enterprise IT managers: Review your mobile fleet’s age. If a significant portion is due for refresh in Q3 or Q4, lock in bulk pricing with vendors now. Consider re-examining refresh policies: extending the lifecycle of existing phones by six to twelve months could defer purchases until the memory supply eases, potentially saving 10% or more per unit. For Windows laptops, the same calculus applies. If you can wait until late 2027 for a PC refresh, you may ride out the peak of memory pricing.
  • For the budget-conscious: Keep an eye on the pre-owned market. As consumers hold onto devices longer, the supply of used flagships may tighten, but certified refurbished programs from Apple and Samsung often maintain stable pricing. Also, watch for carrier promotions that subsidize handset costs in exchange for long-term contracts; these may become more aggressive as phone makers try to keep volumes up.
  • Monitor the global chip landscape: Reports on DRAM contract prices for Q3 2026, typically from firms like TrendForce, will signal whether the memory crunch is peaking. If prices start to soften, it could mean better phone deals for the holiday season—but don’t count on it yet.

The Road Ahead: Foldables, iPhone 18, and a Long Memory Winter

Counterpoint’s warning that the rest of 2026 will be “challenging” should be taken seriously. The memory shortage is structural, not a short-term blip: building new fab capacity takes years, and AI industry demand is still accelerating. That means elevated component costs are likely to persist well into 2027.

Samsung’s imminent foldable launch and Apple’s iPhone 18 debut in September will be the next major tests. If Samsung raises prices on its new Galaxy Z Fold and Flip devices, it could signal that even the premium segment is capitulating to cost pressures. Apple, having already hiked MacBook and iPad prices in June, may face intense debate over whether to pass memory costs onto iPhone 18 buyers. A higher starting price for the iPhone 18 could reshape upgrade cycles and give Samsung another opening.

For Windows users, the story is bigger than phones. The same AI-driven memory crunch is putting upward pressure on every computing device you buy. As service journalism, our advice is consistent: plan your purchases with a buffer for higher costs, favor devices with stable component supply, and stay informed about the semiconductor market—because for the next year or more, the chips that power your world are going to cost more.